There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK?

--Josh Berkus

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  • Bruce Momjian at Feb 27, 2010 at 8:30 pm

    Josh Berkus wrote:
    There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK?
    Yes, I talked to Alvaro via IM about 2 hours ago. He was already
    online. His apartment building was shaken up but undamaged and his
    family is fine too.
  • Marc G. Fournier at Feb 28, 2010 at 12:22 am
    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently?
    haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a
    few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile?

    Hrmmm ...
    On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Bruce Momjian wrote:

    Josh Berkus wrote:
    There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK?
    Yes, I talked to Alvaro via IM about 2 hours ago. He was already
    online. His apartment building was shaken up but undamaged and his
    family is fine too.

    --
    Bruce Momjian <bruce@momjian.us> http://momjian.us
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  • Robert Haas at Feb 28, 2010 at 1:33 am

    On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 7:21 PM, Marc G. Fournier wrote:
    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently?
    haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a few
    weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile?

    Hrmmm ...
    Should I rocket my children to a solar system with a yellow sun?

    ...Robert
  • Michael Glaesemann at Feb 28, 2010 at 1:53 am

    On Feb 27, 2010, at 20:33 , Robert Haas wrote:
    On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 7:21 PM, Marc G. Fournier wrote:
    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening
    recently?
    haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in
    illinos a few
    weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile?

    Hrmmm ...
    Should I rocket my children to a solar system with a yellow sun?

    ...Robert
    Isn't that Rob-el?

    Michael Glaesemann
    grzm seespotcode net
  • Boszormenyi Zoltan at Feb 28, 2010 at 9:57 am
    It must be that someone has dropped a small amount of
    cheese into a lactose-intolerant volcano god...

    Marc G. Fournier írta:
    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening
    recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one
    in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border
    and now Chile?

    Hrmmm ...
    On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Bruce Momjian wrote:

    Josh Berkus wrote:
    There was a huge earthquake in Chile this morning ... Alvaro, you OK?
    Yes, I talked to Alvaro via IM about 2 hours ago. He was already
    online. His apartment building was shaken up but undamaged and his
    family is fine too.

    --
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    PG East: http://www.enterprisedb.com/community/nav-pg-east-2010.do

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    --
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    than these cometh of evil." (Matthew 5:37) - basics of digital technology.
    "May your kingdom come" - superficial description of plate tectonics

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  • Steve Crawford at Mar 1, 2010 at 6:52 pm

    Marc G. Fournier wrote:
    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening
    recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one
    in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border
    and now Chile?
    Random events come in bunches - something I always stop to remind myself
    of whenever there is a sudden bunch of quakes, celebrity deaths, plane
    crashes, etc. Especially with relatively unusual events like
    great-quakes and plane crashes, it can be tough to see if there is any
    signal in the noise - a job I have to leave to experienced statisticians.

    The world averages one "great" (8+) earthquake/year which, of course,
    means some years like 2008 have none but 2007 had four. 7-7.9 like Haiti
    or our own Loma Prieta quake are far more common averaging ~17/year.

    Haiti is a catastrophe not because the quake was of unusual size (it
    barely made it into the 7-7.9 category and released less that 1/15 the
    energy of the Chile quake) but because the hypocenter was both shallow
    and fairly close to Port-au-Prince combined with terrible construction
    standards and virtually non-existent emergency-response capabilities in
    Haiti.

    Some general quake stats/facts are here:
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php

    Cheers,
    Steve
  • Chris Browne at Mar 2, 2010 at 11:54 am

    Steve Crawford writes:
    Marc G. Fournier wrote:
    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening
    recently? haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently
    one in illinos a few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean
    border and now Chile?
    Random events come in bunches - something I always stop to remind
    myself of whenever there is a sudden bunch of quakes, celebrity
    deaths, plane crashes, etc. Especially with relatively unusual events
    like great-quakes and plane crashes, it can be tough to see if there
    is any signal in the noise - a job I have to leave to experienced
    statisticians.
    I'll nit pick a little bit...

    Random events are often *noticed* when there is some reason to think
    it's an unusually large batch.

    Nobody really notices the carnage on the highways, because,
    stochastically, there are such a large number of events, both positive
    and negative (e.g. - millions of people making it home safely, and a
    tiny number that don't) that it's difficult for there to be a
    sufficiently large number of "adverse events" to notice.

    People are a lot more worried about terrorists than about car accidents,
    even though the latter are *enormously* more likely to cause one's
    demise, by a *huge* factor. (This mismeasurement irritates me a lot,
    particularly when I visit airports!)

    2010 has had more news about earthquakes than other nearby years, but as
    you say, it is not obvious that there is any signal to be found in the
    noise.

    <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadly_earthquakes_since_1900> is
    an interesting list. Very few quakes are listed for 2009; I wonder if
    this results from events not being reported yet? Preceding years
    consistently have quite a lot of deadly earthquakes, dating back for
    many years. From that list, Chile has been seeing pretty potent
    earthquakes on a regular basis since 1905.

    I'm mighty glad to hear that Alvaro is OK, and that things weren't too
    disastrously shaken up, for him.
    --
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    "Sponges grow in the ocean. I wonder how much deeper the ocean would
    be if that didn't happen." -- Steven Wright
  • Greg Stark at Mar 2, 2010 at 1:35 pm

    On Mon, Mar 1, 2010 at 11:11 PM, Chris Browne wrote:
    Nobody really notices the carnage on the highways, because,
    stochastically, there are such a large number of events, both positive
    and negative (e.g. - millions of people making it home safely, and a
    tiny number that don't) that it's difficult for there to be a
    sufficiently large number of "adverse events" to notice.
    I don't think the number of positive events factors into it. It's that
    the law of large numbers kicks in and the rate of death is pretty much
    constant. Every now and then there's an atypical weekend for a given
    town or city and the death toll spikes and people do in fact notice.
    Suddenly the news is filled with stories about the carnage the prior
    weekend and various imagined causal factors just like when the stock
    market goes up or down and the news people try to explain why.
    People are a lot more worried about terrorists than about car accidents,
    even though the latter are *enormously* more likely to cause one's
    demise, by a *huge* factor.  (This mismeasurement irritates me a lot,
    particularly when I visit airports!)
    Well there is also a difference here. Because there is an active
    opponent in the terrorism case the security has non-linear game-theory
    effects. In the car safety case you could spend 10x as much money and
    reduce accident death rates by 1/10th. But there's a point of
    diminishing returns and an optimal value somewhere. In the case of
    terrorism it may well be the case that if you spend any money on
    security you must spend a lot of money for it to reach the threshold
    at which terrorists redirect their attacks elsewhere.

    Earthquakes are of course not in that category. They just occur rarely
    enough and then our perception of their severity is heavily influenced
    by where they occur so clumpings are just inevitable.

    --
    greg
  • Alvaro Herrera at Feb 28, 2010 at 3:55 am
    Hi.  We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home
    machine (probably just a loose cable).  Our building was shaken badly
    enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again.

    Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever
    it really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of
    buildings.  Not on my zone though, fortunately for us.  I have
    several friends on the worst area though :-(

    (I have to note that buildings here are built to resist this kind of
    thing, so the fact that some went down means that it was really
    strong)

    Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same
    today.  An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle
    speculation though ...

    At Saturday, 02/27/2010 on 4:21 pm "Marc G. Fournier" wrote:

    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening
    recently?
    haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in
    illinos a
    few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now
    Chile?
  • Marc G. Fournier at Feb 28, 2010 at 4:02 am

    On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Alvaro Herrera wrote:

    Hi.  We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home
    machine (probably just a loose cable).  Our building was shaken badly
    enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again.

    Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever it
    really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of buildings.  Not on
    my zone though, fortunately for us.  I have several friends on the worst
    area though :-(
    Glad to hear you were in a safer zone .. something I've never had to
    weather so far in my life, and would rather keep it that way ;(
    Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today.
    An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation
    though ...
    One comment that one guy at work had about this was along the lines of
    aftershocks, where there is a ripple effect that radiates out from a big
    one affecting seemingly unrelated areas ... not sure how much I subscribe
    to that theory, as one would think that the 'aftershocks' would be less
    intense then the original, and, so far, 8.3/8.8 sounds *alot* higher then
    anything I've heard of recently ...

    My thoughts and prays go out to you and your family ...

    ----
    Marc G. Fournier Hub.Org Hosting Solutions S.A.
    scrappy@hub.org http://www.hub.org

    Yahoo:yscrappy Skype: hub.org ICQ:7615664 MSN:scrappy@hub.org
  • Hiroshi Saito at Feb 28, 2010 at 6:48 am
    Hi Alvaro.

    Ooops, surprised at news now:-(
    I'm wishing you and your familys is no trouble.....
    However, I look at one relief because your mail has arrived. !

    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "Marc G. Fournier" <scrappy@hub.org>

    On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, Alvaro Herrera wrote:

    Hi. We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home
    machine (probably just a loose cable). Our building was shaken badly
    enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again.

    Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever it
    really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of buildings. Not on
    my zone though, fortunately for us. I have several friends on the worst
    area though :-(
    Glad to hear you were in a safer zone .. something I've never had to
    weather so far in my life, and would rather keep it that way ;(
    Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today.
    An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation
    though ...
    One comment that one guy at work had about this was along the lines of
    aftershocks, where there is a ripple effect that radiates out from a big
    one affecting seemingly unrelated areas ... not sure how much I subscribe
    to that theory, as one would think that the 'aftershocks' would be less
    intense then the original, and, so far, 8.3/8.8 sounds *alot* higher then
    anything I've heard of recently ...

    My thoughts and prays go out to you and your family ...

    ----
    Marc G. Fournier Hub.Org Hosting Solutions S.A.
    scrappy@hub.org http://www.hub.org

    Yahoo:yscrappy Skype: hub.org ICQ:7615664 MSN:scrappy@hub.org

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  • Jaime Casanova at Feb 28, 2010 at 6:29 am

    At Saturday, 02/27/2010 on 4:21 pm "Marc G. Fournier" wrote:
    On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 10:45 PM, Alvaro Herrera wrote:

    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently?
    haiti, japan just had one for 6.9, there was apparently one in illinos a
    few weeks back, one on the Russia/China/N.Korean border and now Chile?
    Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today.  An
    actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though
    This is a technical list so i won't insist on this but those of you
    that wanna give a try can read Matthew 24:3, 7, 8 and Luke 21:11

    --
    Atentamente,
    Jaime Casanova
    Soporte y capacitación de PostgreSQL
    Asesoría y desarrollo de sistemas
    Guayaquil - Ecuador
    Cel. +59387171157
  • Ron Mayer at Feb 28, 2010 at 8:04 pm

    Jaime Casanova wrote:
    At Saturday, 02/27/2010 on 4:21 pm "Marc G. Fournier" wrote:
    On Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 10:45 PM, Alvaro Herrera wrote:
    Is there a higher then normal amount of earthquakes happening recently?
    Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same today. An
    actual scientific study would be more useful than idle speculation though
    This is a technical list so i won't insist on this but those of you
    that wanna give a try can read Matthew 24:3, 7, 8 and Luke 21:11
    I find these links useful:

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2009/ ...

    I note
    an 8.1 in Samoa in Sep 2009
    no 8.x's in 2008
    an 8.5 in Sumatra Sep 12 2007
    an 8.0 in Peru, Aug 2007
    an 8.1 in Solomon Islands Apr 2007
    an 8.1 in Kuril Islands Jan 13 2007
    an 8.3 in Kuril Islands Nov 2006
    an 8.7 in Sumatra, March 2005
    an 8.1 in Macquarie Island Dec 2004
    an 8.3 in Hokkaido Japan, Sep 2003


    So yeah, if we're counting 8.8+'s this year's worse than usual;
    but 2005's 8.7's close.
    But if we're counting anything over 8.0, 2007's up there as well.
  • Devrim Gündüz at Feb 28, 2010 at 9:49 am
    I'm happy that you and your family are fine, Alvaro. Same from my wife,
    too.
    On Sat, 2010-02-27 at 19:45 -0800, Alvaro Herrera wrote:
    Hi. We're out of town right now, and it seems I can't get to my home
    machine (probably just a loose cable). Our building was shaken badly
    enough that we'll have a lot of work to do to make it usable again.

    Our earthquake was 8.3 or 8.8 depending on who you ask, and whatever
    it really was, it was strong enough to tear down a bunch of
    buildings. Not on my zone though, fortunately for us. I have
    several friends on the worst area though :-(

    (I have to note that buildings here are built to resist this kind of
    thing, so the fact that some went down means that it was really
    strong)

    Re: the more frequent earthquakes, yeah I was thinking the same
    today. An actual scientific study would be more useful than idle
    speculation though ...
    --
    Devrim GÜNDÜZ
    PostgreSQL Danışmanı/Consultant, Red Hat Certified Engineer
    devrim~gunduz.org, devrim~PostgreSQL.org, devrim.gunduz~linux.org.tr
    http://www.gunduz.org Twitter: http://twitter.com/devrimgunduz

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